Strong growth for generic drugs in Romania and Bulgaria
According to the latest PMR report ?Generic and innovative drugs market in Central Europe 2013. Comparative analysis, viagra cialis reimbursement policies and development forecasts for 2013-2015?, cialis in all of the CE countries analysed, between 2013 and 2015 the average annual rates of change in the amount by which the generic and innovative drug markets grow will be positive, varying between 1 and 6%. This is despite the very severe cost cutting policies implemented in recent years.
2013-2015 CAGR will not exceed 7% and 9% for generics and innovative drugs in CE
According to PMR forecasts Bulgaria and Romania are the most promising as these countries are, in general, the least developed among those analysed (the least saturated) so they will record the most substantial increases not only in generic segment but also in terms of innovative drug sales. ?In Bulgaria the sales of original medicines will be boosted by the appearance of innovative preparations on reimbursement lists, along with the possibility that GPs may be able to prescribe drugs for certain diseases without the need for patient consultation with a specialist. In addition, at the beginning of 2013 the Bulgarian NHIF added eight more rare diseases for which outpatient treatment will be reimbursed. In Romania, the government promises to add innovative therapies to the reimbursement scheme. This should boost annual growth to 7-8% in 2014-2015. The growth rates in Hungary and Poland will be the lowest for both drug groups as a result of the Szell Kalman Plan in Hungary and the Reimbursement Act in Poland.? Monika Stefanczyk, the author of the report explained.
Poland: no change in pro-generic focus
In Poland, the new reimbursement scheme is less harmful to generic drugs than to innovative ones but forces a reduction in the prices of innovative drugs, and this naturally diminishes both the value and rate of growth of the market.
After a difficult 2012 a slight recovery is expected on the market from 2013 onwards. The generic drug market is expected to grow by over 2% in 2013 and 4% in 2015, whereas trade in innovative drugs, because of the nature of the current reimbursement scheme, will stagnate in 2013 and not grow until 2015, when a 2.4% figure is expected.
The year-on-year change of the innovative drug market could be even less substantial if the negative effect of the changes in join-limit groups continues. The limit may be reduced successively with each change to the reimbursement list, and patient co-payment for the most expensive drugs could be increased, in many cases to levels not acceptable to patients. This, in fact, leads to the removal from the reimbursement of the most expensive preparations (mostly innovative products). In all, the reimbursement limit could be affected most severely by cheap and relatively rarely used medicines (accounting for 1-2% of the market), whose market shares will be increased as a result of the removal of more expensive medicines from the limit group. This could lead to the reimbursement limit being set at the level of the cheapest generic in a limit group.
Some positive factors in the innovative subgroup include changes in the nature of consumption and the growing significance of expensive innovative drugs, including newly marketed drugs. All of these trends will counterbalance, albeit to a modest extent for the time being, the negative effects of the changes in reimbursement system.
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